Monday, February 24, 2020

Why paywalls will save journalism

The pending death of newspapers as a medium has become assumed as inevitable by many, if not most media scholars and journalism educators. Circulation has dropped precipitously and print advertising has dried up while revenue from digital advertising has come nowhere close to making up the difference. Numerous titles have closed. More than a dozen newspaper chains have gone bankrupt. Yet recent research has cast doubt on the “death of newspapers” assumption by showing that they continue to operate profitably while digital media, which were supposed to replace them, have been unable to find a profitable business model. A sure sign that there might yet be life in newspapers is the recent renewed activity of hedge funds, which have made major acquisitions of them in both North America and now the UK. This might be explained by the recent success many newspapers have had introducing online subscription schemes through use of the so-called “metered paywall.”

Newspapers also increasingly charged readers for online access, with many adopting the successful “metered” paywall system pioneered in the UK by the Financial Times and perfected in North America by the New York Times. Experimentation with online subscription systems went through several distinct phases in the first two decades of the World Wide Web. Many newspapers tried to charge for online access to their content from the outset, but most had discontinued such attempts by the millennium after they failed to bring in significant revenues. Most newspapers preferred to instead keep access to their online content free in order to attract as many readers as possible as in their print model, and to instead rely for profits on selling digital advertising. Rates for digital advertising dropped significantly due to oversupply, however, and most ad revenue began flowing to Google and Facebook, so renewed attempts were made by newspapers in 2010 and 2011 to devise a profitable paywall. These proved highly successful, encouraging widespread adoption across the industry.

News Limited CEO Rupert Murdoch ordered a “hard” paywall at the Times and Sunday Times in 2010, allowing no content to be viewed without a subscription. By 2014 the newspapers had more than 300,000 online subscribers, each paying £6 a week, and recorded their first annual profit since 2001. Their £1.7 million in earnings that year compared to losses of £6 million the year before and more than £70 million in 2011. By 2018 they had a combined 500,000 online subscribers, with digital subscriptions outnumbering print subscriptions for the first time. Their operating earnings in 2018 were £17 million. Most newspapers hesitated at such an extreme approach, however, preferring to hedge their bets by keeping their pageviews as high as possible in order to maximise online ad sales. 

A “metered” paywall, which allowed both revenue streams, was adopted by the New York Times in early 2011 after considerable development. It allowed most casual visitors through but charged their most frequent readers after a certain number of articles, initially 20. This proved even more successful than the hard paywall, encouraging most of the U.S. newspaper industry to follow its example. Before 2011 was over, such major newspapers as the Baltimore Sun and the Chicago Tribune had adopted the metered model, and the Gannett chain of 80 newspapers followed in 2012, with the exception of its national daily USA Today.

Businessweek magazine declared 2013 “the year of the paywall” and noted that more than 400 publishers in the U.S. and Canada by then charged online readers, helping to raise U.S. newspaper circulation revenue by 5 percent the previous year, the first gain since 2003. The 2013 State of the News Media report published by the Pew Research Center noted that paywalls had “caught fire” in the year since Gannett followed the Times’ lead. Together with print price increases, noted the report, Gannett estimated the changes would generate an additional $100 million in earnings annually. “When Gannett reported in early 2013 that its digital revenue projections were on track, it seemed to signal that such initiatives could work at papers of varying sizes”. It counted 450 of the country’s 1,380 dailies which had by then adopted paywalls, including 47 from the Lee chain, 30 from McClatchy, and fourteen from the E.W. Scripps chain. By early 2018, the New York Times had more than 2.6 million digital subscribers, bringing its reader revenue above $1 billion a year and accounting for 60 per cent of its sales.

In Canada, only 4 percent of newspapers were behind a paywall in 2011, according to a study by the Canadian Media Concentration Research Project, but by 2015 that had risen to 58 percent. When the Toronto Star, Canada’s largest daily, erected a paywall in 2018, that brought the total to 65 percent when measured by circulation. A 2018 study done at the University of Missouri which examined 236 U.S. newspapers found 77 percent of them charged for online access. By far the most common pay model found was the metered paywall, which was used by 72 percent. A study of twenty small newspapers in Norway found that in addition to using a paywall to increase online subscription revenues, they used it in a “brake” strategy to stop losses in print circulation revenue.

A 2019 study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism examined 212 news organisations in the U.S., UK, and five European countries and found that 69 percent of newspapers employed a paywall, up from 64.5 percent in 2017. The proportion of regional newspapers with paywalls was even higher, as only 27 percent offered free access, down from 36 percent in 2017. A majority of the largest newspapers in Finland, France, Germany, Poland, and the U.S. had adopted pay models, but not those in Italy or the UK, which are “very competitive markets where even leading titles may fear losing market share if they implement pay models”. The U.S. had seen the sharpest rise in paywalls erected by newspapers, with 76 percent employing a pay model by 2019, up from 60 percent in 2017. The continuation of this trend prompted the report to declare: “Paywalls are likely here to stay”.

A report released in August 2019 by the Shorenstein Center and Lenfest Institute went even farther, finding that nothing less than a “digital subscription renaissance” had taken place over the previous five years. Declaring the “end of the beginning” of the digital subscription era, its survey of more than 500 for-profit newsrooms in the U.S. found that digital publishers were “well on their way to evolving a standard for success in subscriptions”. Paywalls also encouraged audience engage­ment, the study of mostly local, regional, and metro newspapers found, which was lacking elsewhere on the Internet. This had positive spillover effects on both digital advertising sales and journalism.
Volume-driven digital advertising engenders a race-to-the-bottom to produce the lowest-cost, highest-volume content. Publish­ers reliant on digital advertising generally see business goals as increasing­ly distant from editorial priorities. Conversely, digital subscriptions require growing the number of users who are highly engaged in a publisher’s content. . . . When users pay for access to news content, the business goals of a news organization more closely meet editorial goals.
A 2019 analysis by the Wall Street Journal, however, found that a “stark divide has emerged between a handful of national players that have managed to stabilize their businesses and local outlets for which time is running out”. Its examination of circulation, advertising, financial, and employment data found that local papers had suffered sharper declines in circulation and advertising revenue than national newspapers and were also having “a much more difficult time converting readers into paying digital customers”. It pointed to data which showed that Google and Facebook took 77 percent of digital advertising revenue in local markets in 2017, compared with 58 percent nationally. While the Wall Street Journal was able to convert 4.5 percent of its readers into digital subscribers and the New York Times 3.6 percent, Gannett’s local newspapers which had paywalls (not all did) converted only 1.4 percent.